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Global Markets Rally on Rate Cut Hopes, But Trade Tensions and IMF Warnings Urge Caution

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New Delhi, 18 October (H.S.): Global stock markets ended the week on a cautiously optimistic note, with Wall Street posting gains as investors weighed strong corporate earnings against persistent trade tensions and warnings of a global economic slowdown. Indian markets were closed for the weekend but ended their previous session with the biggest weekly gain in four months.

Wall Street Ends Higher Amid Mixed Signals

U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, buoyed by robust bank earnings and comments from President Trump that tempered fears of an all-out trade war with China. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all gained approximately 0.5%. This came after the president suggested that a potential 100% tariff on Chinese imports was not sustainable. The S&P 500 financial sector saw a rise, and regional bank stocks also recovered from earlier jitters. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.7%, the Nasdaq rose 2.1%, and the Dow climbed 1.6%.

Indian Markets Celebrate Strong Week; Rupee Recovers

Indian equity markets, which are closed on Saturdays, concluded their best week in four months on October 17 . The BSE Sensex surged 1.75% to close at 83,952.19, while the Nifty50 added 1.67% to finish at 25,709.85 . The rally was driven by foreign institutional investors turning into buyers, falling crude oil prices, and hopes of a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve . The Indian rupee also strengthened, ending 72 paise higher at 87.97 per dollar compared to the previous week’s close.

Global Headwinds and Economic Outlook

Despite the positive market movements, a sense of uncertainty lingers. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a slowdown in global growth from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 . IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that dark clouds of uncertainty still hover over the global economy, citing escalating US-China trade tensions and the disruptive potential of artificial intelligence as significant risks.

Investors remain wary of several factors, including:

US-China Trade War: Tensions have escalated, with China restricting exports of rare earths and the US threatening further tariffs.

Chinese Economic Data: Upcoming data is expected to show China’s economy expanded at its slowest pace in four quarters, reflecting trade tensions and sluggish domestic demand.

Global Growth Concerns: Most global indexes, including Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Europe’s STOXX 600, fell during the week amid worries of a decelerating global economy.

Looking ahead, the market will be closely watching China’s third-quarter GDP report and key inflation data from Japan.

In India, markets will reopen on Monday, October 20, with a special one-hour Muhurat Trading session scheduled for October 21 to mark the start of the new Samvat year.

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Hindusthan Samachar / Jun Sarkar

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