New Delhi, 19 May (H.S.): According to an ICRA report released on Monday, India’s GDP growth is projected to rise to 6.9% in Q4 FY2025, up from 6.2% in Q3 FY2025, despite global uncertainties tied to US tariff issues. ICRA’s chief economist Aditi Nayar noted enhancements in consumer sentiment in both rural and urban areas. In Q4 FY2025, private consumption and investment trends were inconsistent, partly due to tariff uncertainty. The growth of agricultural output from rabi crops is expected to boost the agricultural gross value added (GVA), though sluggish industrial growth and declining service-sector indicators may negatively affect GVA for those segments.

ICRA also indicated a notable increase in net indirect tax growth, surging from 6.8% in Q3 FY2025, significantly aided by a sharp decrease in subsidy disbursement. Investment activity displayed mixed results against trade-related uncertainties, with six out of eleven investment-related indicators, particularly within construction, showing improvement in Q4. Noteworthy state-investor meetings led to record project announcements totaling Rs 19.2 lakh crore in Q4 FY2025, compared to Rs 16.1 lakh crore a year earlier. The Centre’s capital expenditure in this quarter is expected to reflect a healthy 21% year-on-year growth.

While year-on-year growth in services exports slowed to 14.1% from 17.9%, it retained double-digit growth, achieving a record $102 billion in Q4 FY2025. Rural sentiment, as revealed by the Current Situation Index (CSI), improved in January 2025, and urban consumer confidence also rose, demonstrating widespread positive economic sentiments.

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Hindusthan Samachar / Indrani Sarkar