Kolkata, 7 March (H.S.) -An unexpected shift has emerged in the seven-decade-long dispute between the Tibetan government-in-exile and the Chinese government. For the first time since 2010, reports suggest that Chinese authorities have engaged in direct talks with Tibetan exile leaders based in Dharamsala, India. These talks, which took place in July 2024, followed more than a year of back-channel negotiations facilitated by a third country.

While the discussions are at an early and uncertain stage, they signify a potential shift in Beijing’s approach. Interestingly, exile leaders claim that China initiated the talks—a stark contrast to previous years, where Tibetans actively sought dialogue. According to Penpa Tsering, the Sikyong (political leader) of the Tibetan government-in-exile, “They [the Chinese] are reaching out to us, not the other way around.”

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Why Is China Seeking Talks Now?

Tibetan leaders believe that China now faces growing pressure to negotiate with the 89-year-old Dalai Lama before his health declines further. This is a dramatic reversal from the past, where Tibetans were urgently seeking a settlement before time ran out.

Exile leaders argue that China’s weakening bargaining position stems from shifts in diplomatic strategy. Rather than focusing on human rights violations, the Tibetan government-in-exile is now challenging China’s sovereignty claims over Tibet—a far more sensitive issue for Beijing.

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A Shift in Tibetan Strategy: From Human Rights to Sovereignty

For decades, the Tibetan exile leadership relied on Western-led criticism of China’s human rights violations in Tibet. However, this approach failed to pressure China into granting Tibetans autonomy. Despite international condemnation, Beijing ignored past negotiations, intensified forced assimilation policies, and cut off official talks for 14 years.

Now, the Tibetan government-in-exile has adopted a new strategy, shifting the focus from human rights to the legitimacy of China’s sovereignty over Tibet. This change directly challenges Beijing’s core diplomatic and political stance.

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The ‘Resolve Tibet Act’ and U.S. Involvement

A crucial turning point came in July 2024, when the U.S. Congress passed the “Promoting a Resolution to the Tibet-China Conflict Act”, commonly known as the “Resolve Tibet Act.”

This legislation, which received President Biden’s approval, demands substantive dialogue between China and the Dalai Lama. Unlike previous U.S. policies, it downplays human rights concerns and instead questions China’s historical claim over Tibet.

Chinese state media immediately condemned the bill, recognizing it as a direct challenge to Beijing’s territorial sovereignty. The Act implies that if China continues to stall negotiations, the U.S. may reconsider its recognition of Tibet’s legal status as part of China.

China has continuously changed the official date when it claims Tibet became part of China:

Before the 1950s, Chinese scholars cited the 18th century (under the Qing Dynasty) as Tibet’s incorporation.

In the late 1950s, the official stance shifted to the 13th century (under the Mongol Yuan Dynasty).

In 2011, Beijing altered its narrative again, claiming Tibet had been part of China “since ancient times.”

The Tibetan exile government is now leveraging these inconsistencies to challenge China’s historical legitimacy. The Resolve Tibet Act argues that Tibet has always maintained a separate political identity and was recognized as independent by several nations before China’s annexation in the 1950s.

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Dalai Lama’s Succession: A Growing Concern for Beijing

Another major vulnerability in China’s Tibet policy is the question of Dalai Lama’s succession. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has declared that it alone will appoint the next Dalai Lama, but Tibetan history shows that such efforts have repeatedly failed:

The 10th Panchen Lama, chosen by Beijing, rebelled against China’s policies and was imprisoned for decades.

The 17th Karmapa, another prominent Tibetan leader, fled China in 1999 to seek asylum in India.

The 11th Panchen Lama, appointed by Beijing, has struggled to gain legitimacy among Tibetans.

Without recognition from the current Dalai Lama, any successor chosen by Beijing will likely face rejection from Tibetans worldwide.

Beijing’s hardline Tibet policies have backfired in several ways:

1. Personal Insults Against the Dalai Lama – Since 1994, Chinese leaders have personally vilified the Dalai Lama, fueling widespread Tibetan resentment.

2. Delaying Tactics – Between 2002 and 2010, Beijing engaged in talks but made no real concessions, seemingly waiting for the Dalai Lama to grow older and weaker.

Now, as the Dalai Lama approaches his final years, Tibet’s exile leadership is in no hurry to negotiate. Penpa Tsering, the Tibetan Sikyong, stated in April 2024, “We have no immediate expectations… to hope for something at this juncture is not realistic.”

This lack of urgency from Dharamsala is a strategic reversal—Tibetans now see China, not themselves, as the party running out of time.

The Tibetan exile government’s shift in approach is unlikely to immediately force China into negotiations. However, it has already:

Raised international doubts about China’s historical claim over Tibet.

Exposed contradictions in Beijing’s shifting narratives.

Increased internal pressure within China’s policy circles.

For decades, China believed that time was on its side—that the Tibetan movement would weaken as the Dalai Lama aged. But with a new generation of Tibetan leaders adopting a sharper political strategy, Beijing may now find itself needing a deal more urgently than ever before.

As the Tibetan exile leadership plays its new diplomatic card, the coming years may determine whether China finally negotiates in good faith or if the Tibet issue becomes an even greater international flashpoint.

Hindusthan Samachar / S P Singh