By Nazakat Aslam

Srinagar- Kashmir’s weather is becoming increasingly difficult to predict, with recent winters marked by sharp local contrasts, unusual temperature behaviour and sudden extreme events that experts say were rare in the past. 

This winter offered a stark example. While the system brought heavy snow to parts of Budgam, Sanat Nagar and higher reaches of the Pir Panjal range, Srinagar remained largely unaffected.

In an interview with Kashmir Observer,  Independent weather forecaster Faizan Arif attributed these anomalies to changing atmospheric conditions linked to climate change, which are making accurate forecasting more challenging.

“Forecasting has become more challenging,” Arif said.

Arif believes weather forecasting has become more complex even as technology has improved. While modern models have enhanced overall accuracy, Arif said climate change has introduced new uncertainties by producing phenomena that were previously unknown.

“Forecast accuracy has improved overall, but uncertainty has increased because we are now seeing events that did not exist earlier,” he said.

Accurate forecasting is especially critical in Kashmir, where agriculture and horticulture support a large portion of the population. In the past, declining water levels have led to crop losses of nearly 25 percent after farmers were unable to cultivate paddy, highlighting the close link between weather predictions and economic stability.

According to him, the unusual snowfall pattern this winter was caused by a prolonged western disturbance accompanied by unusually strong winds.

“It is new for us to see snowfall in one area and none just three kilometres away. Such large variations were rare earlier,” Arif said.

He explained that persistent winds prevented cold air from settling over Srinagar, a necessary condition for snowfall. At the same time, a layer of warmer air remained trapped above the city. Vertical mixing in the atmosphere pulled this warmer air downward, creating instability and prolonging the weather system.

“For snowfall, cold air needs to settle. Persistent winds and a trapped warm layer over Srinagar did not allow that to happen,” he said.

The episode also produced an unusual temperature pattern. Arif noted that night temperatures rose above daytime maximums, a phenomenon he said he had never witnessed before.

“This was the first time I saw night temperatures exceeding daytime temperatures, and no weather model had forecast it,” he said.

For many residents, such changes are unsettling. Bashir Ahmad, a 67-year-old Srinagar resident, recalled winters from his childhood when snow blanketed the city without exception.

“I still remember my childhood winters. Snow was everywhere. There was not a single corner left uncovered,” he said. “It was not just about beauty. That snow was what the region depended on. Today, the need for it is greater than ever, but it no longer comes the way it used to. The winters now scare me because they feel uncertain and unfamiliar.”

Experts say such incidents are no longer isolated. Kashmir is increasingly witnessing extended dry spells followed by intense rainfall or snowfall compressed into a few hours. In some cases, precipitation equivalent to nearly two months occurs in a single day, a phenomenon internationally classified as an extreme event.

“These events cause damage, disrupt electricity supply, increase surface runoff and do not allow proper groundwater recharge,” Arif said, warning that the long-term ecological impact could be severe.

Air quality has also emerged as a growing concern. The common perception that Kashmir’s air remains clean year-round does not hold true, particularly in urban areas. Traffic-heavy zones are reporting rising PM2.5 and PM10 levels, indicating a steady increase in pollution in densely populated centres.

Arif also cautioned against the spread of misinformation on social media, where exaggerated headlines often circulate faster than verified forecasts.

“People read headlines, not forecasts. Sensationalism creates panic, even when the forecast itself is accurate,” he said.

What the region is experiencing, Arif added, is not part of natural variability.

“This is not routine weather change. What we are seeing is a clear signal of climate change,” he said.

As extreme and unpredictable weather events become more frequent, the question facing Kashmir is no longer whether the climate is changing, but whether the region is prepared to understand, adapt to and plan for a future in which the weather no longer behaves as it once did.